Tet is the biggest sales window of the year for Vietnamese online sellers, and also the period when stock most reliably arrives late or not at all. The reason is almost always the same: Chinese factories close earlier than you expect, and the shipping leg takes longer than you budgeted.
Why supply chains break at Tet
Vietnamese Lunar New Year and Chinese Lunar New Year fall at nearly the same time. That means when Vietnamese buyer demand peaks, Chinese factories shut down in unison.
Most factories stop accepting new orders 10 to 15 days before the Lunar New Year. Smaller workshops close even earlier, two to three weeks out, so workers can travel home. After the holiday, reopening is staggered: some restart between day 5 and day 7 of the new year, others wait until the 15th or later, depending on the factory and the province. There is no single right answer, so you need to ask each supplier directly.
The practical result: the window to get stock in for Tet selling is much tighter than any other import cycle in the year.
Count backward from your sell date, not forward from your order date
The most common planning mistake is counting forward: placing an order today and then estimating when it might arrive. The right method is the reverse: start with the date you need stock in hand to sell, and subtract each leg.
A worked example for stock you want selling during the final lunar month before Tet (roughly January on the solar calendar):
- Target sell date: around the 10th of the final lunar month (mid-January solar).
- Subtract receiving and warehouse intake in Vietnam: 1 to 2 days after arrival.
- Subtract sea freight from China to Vietnam: roughly 18 to 30 days, depending on route and carrier. Air freight is faster but costs significantly more per kilogram.
- Subtract customs clearance in Vietnam: usually 1 to 3 days, but port congestion during Tet peak season can add several more.
- Subtract factory production and packing time: 5 to 10 days for goods already in stock, longer for custom labeling or OEM work.
- Add a 5 to 7 day buffer for unplanned delays: stock held at port, a factory running behind, or a carrier with a backlog.
Adding it up, stock you want selling in the final lunar month typically needs to be ordered in October or early November (solar calendar), roughly three to four months before Tet. If you are reading this in November or later, some of those orders should already be placed.
Factory holiday risks and how to handle them
The factory closure is not just a gap in the calendar. There are several specific risks to plan around.
Factories miss pre-holiday delivery commitments. As they approach the break, factories carry more orders than usual, workers start leaving early, and production slows. An order placed in November with a promised delivery in that same week can slip by 5 to 10 days. The fix: place early and keep critical batches away from the two-week window immediately before the Chinese New Year.
Goods held in the consolidation warehouse over the holiday. If your stock reaches the consolidation warehouse in China before the outbound shipment departs, and that shipment falls inside the holiday window, the goods sit there until the carrier resumes. Ask your carrier in advance for the last departure date before the holiday.
Post-holiday port congestion. Many sellers order at the same time, many shipments arrive at the same time, and ports back up. Clearance times in the weeks after Tet tend to run 3 to 5 days slower than normal. Any batch you intended to sell in early February but that arrives in the post-holiday rush will get caught in the delay.
Post-holiday factory understaffing. Some workers do not return immediately after the break, or do not return at all. Factories run below capacity for the first few weeks back, which means orders placed right after Tet often carry longer-than-normal lead times. If you are restocking for the Lunar New Year Lantern Festival or preparing for March 8, do not assume a factory is back at full production from day five.
Which SKUs to stock up for Tet
Not every product warrants a large Tet import. Before scheduling, filter your SKU list through two questions.
Is the Tet demand spike predictable for this category? Decorations, red envelopes, gifts, cooking goods for the holiday period, and winter clothing in the north all see clear pre-Tet demand spikes. Phone accessories, standard household goods, and stationery do not carry a strong Tet-specific lift. Adding inventory there beyond your normal buffer is harder to justify.
Has this SKU already proven a stable sell-through rate? Placing a large Tet batch on a product you have never sold before is a double risk: you do not know how the market will respond, and you have no outlet for it if Tet passes without clearing. Better to increase the import quantity on SKUs that have shown a consistent weekly sell rate over the previous three months.
For seasonal Tet goods (decorations, red envelopes), plan your post-Tet clearance path before you order. High-seasonality goods that carry over are genuinely hard to move.
Sizing the Tet import batch
A practical estimate:
- Take the average weekly units sold over the past four weeks.
- Apply a seasonal multiplier for your category. There is no universal number, but many sellers in seasonal categories see the final lunar month run at 1.5 to 2.5 times a normal month. Use your own data from last Tet if you have it, since your category and customer base matter more than any general figure.
- Add a safety stock buffer for the chance demand runs higher than expected.
- Subtract the current inventory you already have on hand.
- The remainder is what you need to import.
Do not over-order on high-seasonality items. Tet decorations and red envelopes left over afterward will sit for twelve months. It is better to run out a few days early than to carry that inventory through the year.
Cash flow during the Tet import cycle
A Tet import cycle ties up more capital than any other period, and that capital is locked in the warehouse while you are still paying for ads, platform fees, and operating costs.
A few practical points:
- Split the import into two or three batches rather than one large order. The first batch goes out early and the second, smaller batch fills in once you have a read on actual sell-through.
- Price your cost using the exchange rate at order time. The yuan to VND rate moves, so use the current figure when you place the order (around VND 3,600 per yuan as a recent reference, but verify it at the time you calculate). Update your landed cost model if you see a significant move.
- Budget for peak-season surcharges. Some carriers and consolidation warehouses add peak fees during the holiday period. Ask in advance so the number does not surprise your margin.
Bottom line
Getting stock in before Tet is not luck. It is arithmetic run backward from the day you need to sell. Factory closures, shipping congestion, and slower customs clearance stack together and can easily push a batch two to three weeks past your target arrival date. Sellers who get through Tet intact are the ones who placed their orders while others were not yet thinking about it, and held enough safety stock to avoid running out at the peak.