Peak season is when you sell the most, and also when stock arrives latest. If you do not work out your order date carefully, goods can still be stuck at customs while your best selling window has already closed.
Why clearance slows exactly when you need it fastest
There are two main peak periods each year that matter for sellers importing from 1688: Tet (Vietnamese Lunar New Year) and the 11/11 sale. Both create the same kind of bottleneck, though through slightly different mechanisms.
Tet. Factories on the Chinese side shut down for one to two weeks, sometimes longer. Suppliers stop producing, consolidation warehouses close or run at minimal capacity, and carriers lose most of their workforce. But the problem starts well before the break: three to four weeks out, the entire Chinese logistics network is already congested because every importer is trying to get goods out before factories close. Freight rates rise, container slots tighten, and factories run behind their usual lead times. On the Vietnamese end, customs officers take leave too. A shipment that would normally clear in two to three days can stretch to a week or more if it lands in that window.
11/11 and other major flash sales. Here the issue is not holidays but sheer volume. The number of parcels shipped out of China during 11/11 week multiplies several times compared to a normal week. Ports, consolidation warehouses, airlines, and road carriers all face a sudden overload. The result: flight schedules back up, parcels queue, and transit time from the China warehouse to Vietnam stretches by three to seven days. Vietnamese customs also processes a spike in declarations at the same time, which adds more delay.
The short version: the moment you most need goods to arrive fast is the moment the whole system is running slow for the same reason you are.
Work backward from the date you need stock
The right way to plan is to start from the date you need goods in your warehouse ready to sell, then count back to the date you need to place the order.
Say you want stock in your Vietnam warehouse for a Tet campaign starting around the first week of December (solar calendar):
- Date stock is needed in warehouse: early December.
- Customs clearance and last-mile receipt: normally one to three days, but add three to seven days of buffer for peak season.
- Transit from China to Vietnam: sea freight runs roughly 18 to 30 days; road transport through informal channels can be five to ten days; air is faster but significantly more expensive.
- Factory production and packing: two to seven days if goods are ready-made stock. Two to four weeks if the factory is producing to order (OEM, custom packaging).
- Buffer for unexpected problems: at least one week.
Add all of that together and a typical sea-freight order already takes four to six weeks from the moment you confirm the order to the moment it sits in your warehouse. In peak season, add one to two more weeks. That means you need to place the order at least six to eight weeks before you need the goods, not the three to four weeks that might work in a quiet period.
Waiting until the season "feels close" usually means you are already two to three weeks behind.
Factory closures: dates to know
Not every factory closes at the same time, and exact dates shift by year. The practical move is to ask your supplier directly as soon as you start planning, rather than guessing.
A few general patterns:
- Two to three weeks before Chinese New Year: factories start declining new orders as workers begin traveling home. Production capacity drops gradually. If you need goods manufactured in December, confirming the order in late October or early November is safer than waiting.
- The official break: typically seven to fifteen days, sometimes longer. Ask the specific factory what dates they will be closed that year.
- Two to three weeks after the break: factories reopen but run below capacity while workers return. Orders placed immediately after the holiday often run later than suppliers promise.
For 11/11: there is no holiday, but from late October through mid-November, consolidation warehouses and carriers are stretched. If you need goods for an 11/11 campaign, the shipment should leave China before October 25 to 31. Place the order three to four weeks before that, depending on production time.
Split shipments rather than one big late order
A common trap is waiting until close to peak season, then placing one large order. This stacks all the risk onto a single point in time. If that shipment is delayed or held at customs, you have no stock for the campaign.
A better approach is to split:
- First shipment: place as early as possible, around seven to eight weeks before peak, covering your highest-priority SKUs. This is the one you cannot afford to have delayed.
- Replenishment shipment: place two to three weeks later, once you have an early read on how fast the first batch is moving. If sell-through is fast, the replenishment lands in time to cover it. If it is slower than expected, you can trim the quantity.
This also prevents the opposite problem: holding too much unsold stock after the peak passes. Leftover Tet goods sitting in your warehouse in February are a real cost, especially for seasonal or decorative items.
Freight rates rise in peak season
Beyond timing, cost changes too. During both peak windows, freight rates can run 20 to 50 percent higher than normal, depending on route and carrier. Demand spikes while capacity stays the same.
This directly affects your landed cost. If you budgeted using regular-season freight rates, a peak-season shipment will land at a lower margin than you projected. Ask your carrier or order agent for an estimated rate for that specific period, or add a 20 to 30 percent buffer to the freight portion of your cost calculation.
If timing allows and you place the order early enough, sea freight is still far cheaper than air freight even at peak-season rates. Air is only worth considering when the shipment value is high and you genuinely have no time left.
Paperwork: get it right before the shipment moves
One thing many sellers overlook: goods get held at customs not always because of physical congestion, but sometimes because a declaration is missing, an invoice is mismatched, or the HS code is wrong. During a quiet period a customs officer might process a minor correction quickly. During peak season, the same issue goes into a longer queue.
A few things worth confirming before the goods leave China:
- Review the commercial invoice from the factory carefully. Product description, quantity, and unit price need to match what is physically in the shipment.
- Confirm the HS code with whoever handles your customs clearance before the goods ship, not after they reach the border.
- If you use an order agent service, ask them to provide the full documentation set before the shipment departs the China warehouse.
Clean paperwork does not make the queue disappear, but it keeps you out of a three-to-five day hold just to chase a document at the worst possible moment.
Bottom line
Two simple rules for peak season: order earlier than you think you need to, and plan from the date you need stock backward to the date you need to place the order. Tet and 11/11 do not accommodate sellers who order on their usual schedule. Clearance stretches, freight rises, and goods arrive late precisely when you need them most. Add up every leg, build in a risk buffer, and lock the order date before the season starts.