Most new sellers pick what to source from 1688 on instinct. They see a TikTok video with a few million views, see one shop selling well, and order the same thing. The problem shows up 20 to 40 days later when the stock lands: the trend has cooled, or the price has already been crushed by a dozen other shops. This is about reading real demand signals before you commit capital, so you import because there is demand, not because you are afraid of missing out.
"It is selling well" is not yet a reason to buy
A product running hot on TikTok Shop tells you two things at once: there is demand, and there are already sellers. What you actually need is the rest of the picture. How long will that demand last, and is there still room for a late entrant.
Beginners read the first half and order. People who have done this a while read both halves, because their money sits in a warehouse for 20 to 40 days before it sells a single unit. In that window a short trend can die, and a hot product can pull in another 30 shops racing each other to the bottom on price. A good signal answers one question: when my stock arrives, will the market still look like it does today.
Reading demand signals on TikTok Shop
TikTok Shop is where demand appears first, so this is where you start. A few numbers are far more reliable than video views.
- Units sold on the product, not views on the video. A video with 3 million views attached to a product that sold 200 units is an entertainment signal, not a buying signal. A product moving 1,000 to 2,000 units a week across several different shops is real demand that does not depend on one lucky clip.
- Many shops selling, not one. If exactly one shop is winning, they probably win on their channel or their own creators, not on the product. When five or seven different shops all move the same item, the demand lives in the product and you have a way in.
- Velocity, not just total. A product climbing from a few hundred to a few thousand units in two weeks is on the way up. A product with a high lifetime total but a flat week-over-week count may already be at its peak. You want the rising stretch, not the plateau.
Record these three numbers for every product you watch, over at least two weeks. One screenshot does not show a trend. Two readings two weeks apart do.
Cross-check Shopee to test whether demand holds
TikTok Shop tells you what is spiking. Shopee tells you what people still buy once the spike passes. Durable demand usually leaves a mark in both places.
Search the exact product term on Shopee and look at the units sold for the top shops. If TikTok is hot but almost nobody sells it on Shopee, this is most likely a short video-driven trend, and the risk falls on whoever imports last. If Shopee also shows steady sales going back a while, you are looking at demand with a floor, and TikTok is simply amplifying it. Demand with a floor is worth your capital.
Check saturation before you import
This is the step beginners skip, and the one that loses the most money. High demand with a supply that is already full means you enter late, the only lever you have left is price, and your margin evaporates.
A quick way to check:
- Count the shops selling the same item across both platforms. Under ten shops means there is still room. A few dozen at near-identical prices means the game is already a price war.
- Look at the price band. If the selling price already sits close to landed cost plus platform fee plus shipping, the market is crushed and every late entrant loses. A wide price band means there is still headroom.
- Find the source product on 1688. If dozens of suppliers there sell the same item at the same low price, the barrier to entry is near zero, and next month another dozen local shops will import it too. A small difference (a variant, a bundled accessory, better packaging) keeps you out of a naked price race.
Check the margin before you spend a dong
Demand signals only matter if the final number is positive. Before you order, build the real landed cost of one unit, not just the 1688 price.
Real landed cost includes: the product price on 1688, domestic China shipping to the consolidation warehouse, freight to Vietnam (by weight or by volume), tax and customs handling, the order-service fee if you go through an agent, and shrinkage from defects. Convert it all to dong at the current rate (around VND 3,600 per yuan, so check it when you calculate). Then take the expected selling price, subtract real landed cost, and subtract the platform fee and your expected ad spend per order. What is left is profit.
The classic mistake is taking the selling price minus the 1688 price and calling that profit. The real figure is usually 30 to 40 percent lower once every fee layer is added. If the margin is paper-thin after a full count, a "hot" product is still a product that loses money.
A four-question filter before you commit
Before the first batch, answer four questions straight:
- Does the demand leave a mark on both TikTok Shop and Shopee, or just one video?
- Are sales climbing or flat over the last four weeks?
- Is there still room for a late entrant, or is the price already at cost?
- After every fee and ad cost, is the per-order margin worth the effort?
Four yeses, and you import, in a small test batch first. One no, and you wait, or find a difference that lowers the risk. The goal is not to catch every trend. It is to put capital only into items that proved their demand before your money sat in a warehouse.
Bottom line
Good sourcing is not guessing the next trend. It is reading the right signals and removing risk before you commit. Durable demand, room for a late entrant, and a positive margin after every fee: those three matter more than a million-view video.
This is the thinking behind Ordinex Scout. Instead of scrolling on instinct, you filter 1688 products by margin and real demand signals right before you decide to import. Take a look at ordinex.cc.